Colder Than Average - (The First Colder Than Average Winter Since Winter 2014-2015)
A lack of any major snow storms and a trifecta of chill well characterized winter 2024-'25 throughout eastern New York and western New England with all three winter months coming in colder than the 1991-2020 thirty year average, something that has not occurred since the winter of 2013-'14.
The season's mean temperature at Albany was 26.2 degrees, that's the average of the three winter months, December, January, and February. This was a full degree below the current 1991-2020 thirty year average. The winter of 2014-'15 was the last colder than average winter in the Capital Region with a seasonal mean temperature of 23.1 degrees, considerably colder than this season. In fact, to date, of the 151 winter seasons on record at Albany, looking at records back to 1874, 92 of them were colder than this winter. So the chill that occurred was not in the grand scheme particularly noteworthy. But, because the last two consecutive winters were much warmer than typical (winter 2023-'24 is currently the warmest on record with a mean temperature of 33.8 degrees) the chill for many may have seemed unusual.
It's important to recognize that the thirty year climate normal data set is used to gauge conditions in the current climate and not so much a tool to show the impacts of climate change, although the warming climate does factor into it. For perspective, if we compared this winter to the previous 1981-2010 thirty year climate normals, this winter would actually have come in warmer than average by 0.6 degrees at Albany.
What we are observing, locally, nationally, and globally as the climate warms is that cold patterns/season are becoming less cold over time with bouts of particularly severe cold occurring for much shorter periods of time, while warm patterns are becoming warmer with periods of extreme warmth increasing in frequency. This winter fell within what would be expected in our warmer world as an example of how the chill today, when it does occur, is much less intense than what has typically occurred in the recent colder past.
Winter's pattern was stable with the chill persistent, although there was very little extreme cold. There were only six days at Albany where the minimum temperature dropped to zero or lower (the long term average is 10 in a full cold season) and of those the lowest temperature observed was only -9 on January 22nd. No daily records for cold were set during the winter months at Albany.
Dates at Albany of the Observed Zero or Lower Temperatures
In all, 48 days at Albany came in colder than average, 40 warmer than average and 2 exactly average.
Colder than average conditions were observed at all five local climate sites with the temperature departures from the 1991-2020 thirty year average at both Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie under a degree. The data indicates a chilly winter but not one particularly noteworthy for cold.
December
ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific to begin winter in December 2024 with a lean toward the emergence of weak La Nina by the end of the month. The jet stream pattern, however, across the northern tier of the country was active and highly variable, which is consistent with weak La Nina. Numerous clipper type storm systems came down the prevailing west to northwest flow bringing largely nuisance type snowfalls and some shots of very cold air that moved across the region.
January
The general pattern was mildly influenced by the weak La Nina with a highly active storm pattern continuing along a largely low amplitude jet that generally remained south of the northern tier of states. This jet stream configuration favored the heavier precipitation tracks with fast moving moderate intensity storms to remain south of us.
A strongly negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (-AO) was in play through the first 10 days of January which corresponded to a period very cold weather locally between the 4th and the 9th. The index, however, went positive during the second half of the month. Despite the phase shift, which could sometimes result in warming, a disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex enabled a piece of particularly cold air to break away from the arctic and move south across much of the U.S. during January's third week. This resulted in a significant cold air outbreak for much of the country.
January's coldest week locally occurred during this outbreak from the 20th through the 25th which is the period when the month's three days with minimum temperatures of 0 degrees or lower occurred at Albany.
February
February's pattern was again influenced by the weak La Nina which lead to a shallow high pressure ridge aloft over the Southeast and subsequently mild weather conditions across that part of the country.
Simultaneously, a primarily neutral North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative to strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) were in play through the first three weeks of February coupled with a strong but stretched stratospheric polar vortex which had the net effect of allowing cold to at times very cold air to impact the central and northern parts of the county, including the Northeast. The temperature contrast set up a strong jet stream flow that was displaced south of us which resulted in numerous nuisance type storm systems rolling through.
By the final week of February the arctic oscillation trended more neutral which allowed colder air to retreat north, which relaxed the jet stream and allowed milder conditions in with a string of above average days to close out the month from the 23rd through the 28th.
December 11, 2024: Atmospheric River-Heavy Rain Event: An atmospheric river of deep subtropical moisture, originating in the Gulf of Mexico, was focused along a slow moving strong cold front across the Appalachians and Northeast on Wednesday December 11, 2024 resulting in an all day soaking rain. Rainfall totals on average ranged from 1.50" to 2.00" across the region with locally up to 3.00" in some terrain favored areas of the Catskills and parts of the north country.
January 2, 2025: Significant Capital Region Lake Effect Snow Event: A particularly robust lake effect snow band set up from the late morning into the afternoon and evening impacting at times the Mohawk valley into Fulton County, the Capital Region up to Saratoga Springs (evening) into southern Washington, southern Bennington, Rensselaer and northern Berkshires counties. Snowfall rates of 1"/hour or greater occurred at times in brief snow bursts within the snow zone with that heavy wet snow quickly coating roads and causing localized hazardous travel conditions.
January 29, 2025: Clipper System with Snow Squalls/Lightning and High Wind: A potent clipper system track north of the region through the day Wednesday January 29 resulting in a period of synoptic overrunning snow early in the morning that was followed by several bands of convective snow squalls, some of which produced lightning, from the late morning and early afternoon to lake effect snow showers during the afternoon and evening. Snow accumulations in most areas were light ranging from 1-4". Heavier accumulations, however, occurred across the Mohawk valley into the Adirondacks with 4-8" being observed on average.
February 8-9, 2025: Light to Moderate Snow Storm: A fairly routine snow event occurred from Saturday evening February 8th through the early morning on Sunday February 9th resulting in widespread light to moderate snow accumulations with a small zone of enhanced snowfall amounts across the north country due to a period of strong snow banding along a frontogenesis zone during the earlier portion of the event.
February 14, 2025: Localized Significant Lake Effect Snow Event: Highly localized and significant snow accumulations occurred between midnight and 2pm in parts of northern Otsego, Schoharie and Albany counties due to a quasi-stationary zone of heavy lake effect snow that was driven east into that area by a strong west to northwest flow. Accumulations of 3-6" were common with up to 8" reported through mid morning in parts of Schoharie County as a result with a few inches as far east as southern Columbia and Berkshire counties.
February 15-17: Light Snow, Moderate Mixed Precipitation Storm - High Wind Event: This arguably was the most significant system of the winter due to a combination of the impacts from light snow and light to moderate icing coupled with periods of strong, locally damaging wind that lead to power outages. The storm got underway Saturday afternoon February 15, 2025 as light snow. Phase II of the storm on Sunday February 16 was as a wintry mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain that resulted in widespread combined snow and sleet accumulations of 2-4" and 0.20" to 0.40" of flat ice and was followed by a period of strong wind and numerous power outages in the Capital Region. Additional bursts of strong gradient wind occurred through Monday February 17.
Seasonal snowfall was 38.7" which was 3.9", slightly below the 1991-2020 thirty year mean. All of this fell in frequent small, annoying, nuisance installments versus from any major snow storms.