The difference between the No. 1 seed in Section 2-4A and the No. 7 team is three wins. This thing is even more wide open than 2017 when Minnetonka, coming off a state championship season, advanced to state with a 16-12 record.
The team that gets hot the next 10 days will emerge girls basketball section champion.
When seeds were released last Saturday, some were surprised; some weren't.
It was clear, cut and dry in my opinion.
Minnetonka was 5-0 against the section. They are the two-time section champions. No debate on No. 1.
Then there was Eden Prairie, its only section losses to Minnetonka, five wins including a head-to-head match-up with Prior Lake. Second in the section with 15 wins, no debate, the No. 2 seed.
Chanhassen lost twice to Chaska. They lost to Edina and Shakopee.
Chaska lost to Minnetonka, Edina, Eden Prairie, and Shakopee.
It's a simple head-to-head conversation when you have teams so close in wins. Conference standings are used at times, but these seedings please that.
So, what will it take for Chaska and Chanhassen to get back in the top four seeds going forward?
The Metro West Conference certainly won't help. The Lake Conference and South Suburban Conference are overall better leagues in basketball.
That leaves those early-season head-to-head match-ups. Chanhassen was 1-6 before Christmas (0-3 versus Section 2). Chaska was 0-8 into the holiday break (0-4 versus Section 2).
Those results need to change for a top-four seed.
A victory tonight -- Chaska at Prior Lake, Chanhassen at Eden Prairie -- may earn the programs some respect as well.
The loss of guard Megan Walker in January made Minnetonka adjust to more of a defensive-minded games. The Skippers won 10 of the last 13 games. In those 10 wins, they held opponents to 48 points per game. In the three losses, the opponents' average score was 66.
Edina relies heavily on three scorers -- Olivia Coughlin and Macy Nielsen at 15 points per game with Lauren Oyalo at 8.5 -- leaving them vulnerable if one player struggles.
Shakopee owns just four wins in the last 16 games -- two each versus one-win Eagan and eight-win Rosemount. The loss of Rachel Garvey, a North Dakota recruit, certainly hasn't helped. Isabell West and Ashley Herold do give the Sabers a solid inside presence.
Prior Lake certainly can be the most dangerous team in the section, among the top scoring teams in Class 4A at 66 points per game. McKenna Hofschild can be a scoring machine, averaging 27 a game. The Lakers' downfall is defense. They have allowed 70-plus points 10 times.
Chaska certainly is playing its best basketball of the season, nine wins in its last 11 games. Eighth grader Mallory Heyer has scored in double figures in 10 straight games, and 14 of the last 15. Freshman point guard Destinee Bursch netted 23 points in the season finale and has been a major difference down the stretch.
First-year head coach Ellen Wiese understands how to win come section time, longtime coach of Orono. Now at Eden Prairie, she has the Eagles competitive most nights. Stopping the physical game of Nnecka Obiazor will be a tough task for Chanhassen.
Chanhassen won seven of eight games between Jan. 5 and Feb. 2, playing top-five St. Michael-Albertville tough on a back-to-back in a 57-50 decision on Feb. 3. Ever since, the Storm are 4-4, held to 32, 40 and 41 points in recent losses. Running the offense for a great shot, not good, rebounding defensively, and not going long stretches without points will be keys to a victory.