The chilly weekend ended with some conversational snow showers Sunday night. Approximately the northern half of New Jersey is reaching for the snow brush Monday morning, with up to an inch and a half of accumulation.
If you do have snow on the ground, it is not going to last long, as we squeeze out one mild day to start the workweek. South Jersey may touch 50 degrees Monday afternoon -- not warm, but pleasant.
Tuesday turns blustery. And then our attention turns to a complicated storm system set to arrive late Wednesday.
It is time to start ringing alarm bells about that midweek storm system, which is going to feature a messy transition from snow to icy mix to rain. Snowy, icy, slushy, and wet travel is expected simultaneously across the state by Thursday morning.
There is another similar storm system looming at the end of the week on Saturday. And a couple more next week too. 'Tis the season, right?
All things considered, Monday will be a nice early February day. Certainly a candidate for nicest of the week, knowing what is coming down the 'pike.
Temperatures are starting Monday morning in the 20s and 30s, coldest where there is a coating of fresh snow on the ground. That snow cover will not last long, as the sun comes up and temperatures end up on the mild side Monday afternoon. Look for highs around 45 to 50 degrees.
We will see a mix of sun and clouds, probably leaning heavier on the cloud cover than the sunny side. Winds will stay light and weather will stay dry.
A cold front will push through New Jersey Monday night, but it will not have any dramatic immediate effects on our weather. A sprinkle or flurry is possible. Low temperatures will only dip to around 40 degrees -- above freezing.
Tuesday will be less pleasant, due to the return of one big factor: A chilly breeze. Blowing out of the northwest, gusting up to 30 mph, that will be a biting nuisance to an otherwise decent weather day.
Skies will be mostly sunny. And highs will jump into the mid 40s. Temperatures may start to slide backward in the afternoon.
Tuesday night will be quite cold, as thermometers dip deep into the 20s.
The exact timing and geography of our next storm system is still very much up in the air. But there is a strong signal for a "mess" starting late Wednesday. Let's talk about how I see it playing out.
Most of Wednesday's daytime hours should be quiet. Clouds will roll in. And we could see a few showers around (likely snow showers). It is going to be a cold day, with high temperatures only reaching the lower to mid 30s.
That cold air will make for a wintry start to our "main event," as low pressure pushes in from the southwest Thursday evening. Precipitation may not start until after Midnight for most of the state. Initial precipitation type will likely be snow for all.
Then, as warmer air bubbles up from the south, a transition from straight snow to more of an icy mix is likely along the western edge of New Jersey.
A period of sleet and freezing rain could make for quite an icy scene there -- a true "ice storm" is a very clear worst-case scenario here.
Meanwhile, southern and coastal NJ will likely transition to plain rain around daybreak Thursday.
By the time precipitation exits around midday Thursday (1-2 p.m. at the latest), it will flip to rain everywhere. High temperatures on Thursday will surge to about 35 (north) to 50 (south) degrees.
Overall impacts from Thursday? I think we could see "moderate" snow and ice accumulations across northern and western New Jersey by Thursday morning. On the order of a few inches. To the south and east, light snow totals are possible -- let's say up to an inch -- but that will turn to slush as rain moves in.
Where will the line end up between snowy, icy, and rainy? Can we get more specific than "a few inches" for accumulations? How will roads look for Thursday morning, midday, and afternoon? I think there will be travel disruptions and potential school delays/closings. But definitive numbers and details are still fuzzy for now.
I would not expect much sun to break through the cloud cover Thursday afternoon. There might be an occasional breeze, but nothing too fierce.
Friday looks quiet -- a welcome lull in an otherwise busy week. Look for partly sunny skies and highs in the 40s.
But our next next storm system rolls in Saturday. Once again, it does not look like a 100% snow storm. But current forecast models do show a comparatively snowier solution, before mixing and rain come into play. So North Jersey especially could see more than "a few inches" of snow accumulation, if this forecast holds.
I will tell you straight up: We will not have a confident handle on Saturday's potential storm impacts until after Wednesday night's storm wraps up. Just expect a wintry start to the weekend, with details to follow.
Long-range forecasts show the potential for three more storms for next week. Wednesday, Friday, Sunday -- or something around there. But there is no guarantee those will be snowmakers. Any hint of warm air could push us toward a rainy pattern for any or all of them.
As always, my methodology is to take one storm at a time, and call 'em as I see them. If there is weather in the forecast that will impact travel and/or may be hazardous, I promise you will be among the first to know.