North Carolina is bracing for a Level 3 severe weather threat this week, with damaging winds and the potential for power outages.
While storms like this aren't unusual in early spring, climate experts say they are becoming more intense and arriving outside of their traditional seasons.
"As the climate warms, our spring season is getting spread out a bit," said Chip Konrad, director of the NOAA Southeast Regional Climate Center and a professor at UNC-Chapel Hill. "We're seeing increases in severe thunderstorms into February and even January."
Warmer temperatures, particularly in the Gulf, are fueling stronger storm systems, Konrad said. As ocean waters heat up, more evaporation occurs, feeding extra moisture into storms that move inland.
"That can provide an extra punch for these systems to produce severe weather," he said.
North Carolina has already experienced a growing number of extreme weather events. Hurricane Helene, which made landfall last year, was a Category 4 storm that caused billions in damage across the Southeast.
"The climate models agree -- there is an increase in major hurricanes happening," Konrad said. "That's what North Carolinians need to be most concerned about."
Beyond coastal storms, Konrad pointed to an increase in high-wind events and extreme rainfall inland, which could lead to more flash flooding and infrastructure damage.
Weaker building codes may leave new homes more vulnerable
While the science points to more extreme weather, some experts worry that North Carolina's infrastructure isn't keeping up with the risks.
In 2023, state lawmakers placed a moratorium on residential building code updates until at least 2031. That means new homes won't be required to meet modern wind and flood resilience standards, potentially making them more vulnerable to storms like the one expected this week.
"We have a beautiful state with lots of trees, and these trees grow quickly," Konrad said. "That's the biggest danger when hurricanes move inland -- a lot of trees come down on houses and cars. We need to be thinking more about tree care and cutting down trees that are too close to homes."
NOAA and National Weather Service staffing cuts raise concerns
There's another potential challenge on the horizon: the agencies responsible for tracking these storms may have fewer resources to do so.
Last week, the Trump administration cut hundreds of jobs at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service, including meteorologists, model developers and technicians who maintain forecasting equipment.
Konrad said the staffing shortages could impact forecasting accuracy, particularly for fast-moving, high-risk storms.
"The Weather Service was already understaffed before all this began," he said. "Some forecast offices lost even more. They're really going to be challenged in the coming months."
The cuts also affected teams responsible for maintaining critical weather models, which provide forecasting data used by meteorologists worldwide. Some remote weather balloon launch sites, which help gather atmospheric data, have already been shuttered.
"We're already seeing some degradation in the quality of the information coming in," Konrad said. "And that just makes it harder for the forecasters we have left to do their jobs."
With the spring storm season just beginning, experts say North Carolina must improve its resilience efforts -- both in terms of infrastructure upgrades and investing in weather monitoring.
"Sooner or later, every community will experience these extremes," Konrad said. "The question is whether we'll be ready for them."