Former Rivers State governor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, is not by any stretch of the imagination the friendliest of politicians, but he remains colourful, charismatic and entertaining. His posture on Rivers politics is hard to codify, and even more bizarre is his perspective on opposition politics as defined and executed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of which he is a member. On Monday, he and his co-travellers in the party poured cold water on the new deal reached by the party to conduct its November 15 elective convention, a six-point demand which must be satisfied in order to enable the party legitimise its dealings. Among other demands, the Wike camp of about four former governors insisted that the party must end micro-zoning, retain the chairmanship position in the North Central zone, conduct fresh congresses in Ebonyi and Anambra States, and order a new zonal congress in the Southeast and local government congresses in Ekiti State. Exasperated, their balloons deflated by the fresh scent of discord, some PDP leaders shot back that they would fearlessly confront the Wike camp and not buckle under pressure or allow themselves to be held hostage, while dismissing the complainants as potential 'blackmailers' and a 'camp of fools'.
For about two years, observers had squirmed over Mr Wike's politics as a cabinet member of an All Progressives Congress (APC) administration, describing him as an unprincipled politician running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. For the same period, he had managed to maintain a delicate balance between his position as a PDP leader whose choices shook the party to its foundations during the last elections, and as a minister in the Bola Tinubu administration torn between loyalty to his new boss and duty to his party. He has not quite resolved the dilemma, and has consistently and thus far put on a bold face when compelled to take a definitive stand; but as the 2027 elections draw near, his ability to walk a tightrope will be sorely tested. Indeed, it is already being badly tested as the party inches near its elective convention. Party leaders put all their eggs in one basket, believing that the convention would put paid to the shenanigans of 'fools' playing ducks and drakes with the affections of party members and leaders. It is not certain whether their hopes are well founded, for the Wike camp is also both strong and sizable, not to say battle-hardened and eager to cross swords with the fiercest and swiftest in the party.
But Mr Wike is keeping his cards close to his chest. No one is sure what joker his camp holds, but unlike the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), the feisty patrons of the traumatised Labour Party (LP) which embraced strong-arm tactics to enforce obedience to their interpretation of court orders, Mr Wike, a lawyer himself, and his camp may opt for the litigious route. Whether that would be enough to stall the PDP convention will depend on how their unpredictable lordships view the case. PDP leaders had taken care to carry the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) along when they held their National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting in Abuja, and have notified the electoral body about the upcoming national convention. They have also made peace with Iliya Damagum, their former protem chairman whom Mr Wike loved; and pacified the sometimes dithering Samuel Anyanwu whose cause Mr Wike previously advanced tenaciously. Little by little, however, Mr Wike's men in the PDP National Working Committee (NWC) are either being neutralised or won over. If an irrevocable court order cannot be procured to stymie the convention, Mr Wike will be left with his yesterday men, the former governors of Enugu, Ekiti, Abia, and Benue, to prosecute a war he now increasingly seems fated to lose.
What ails Mr Wike more than anything else is his impetuousness and glibness. Indeed, he is not averse to walking a tightrope, whether it casts him as an unscrupulous politician or not. Needled by angry newspapermen besotted to the opposition, whether that opposition is led by Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi, Mr Wike had responded to the speculation of planning to contest the next presidential election by suggesting that he would commit himself to President Bola Tinubu lock, stock, and barrel. If that is the case, does he not see a contradiction between supporting the ruling party against his own party, the PDP? He waffled some arguments and wished away the dangerous suppositions and inept attempts to corner him. Engaging in two-timing, and dating two 'ladies' with aplomb, unfettered by the howls of outrage and disgust by Nigerians who view with dread the contradiction of lying in bed with the APC administration and smooching the disgruntled PDP reclining on the sofa, can be problematic. The outraged spectators have begun to see the FCT minister as deliberately committed to forestalling a return to normality in the PDP, thereby castrating it and deterring it from reclaiming its winning ways.
Despite the general outrage, however, Mr Wike has proven adept at wrong-footing his opponents in the PDP generally and in Rivers State in particular. Two qualities stand him out. Though sometimes regarded as a roughneck, his instinct for political strategy has remained well above average, sometimes even seeming to be canonised by the favourable outcomes his style and strategies engender. He is a hard working public officer, unafraid to confront the hobgoblins of Nigerian politics wherever they are. Though his political vision may lack much refinement and depth, he is nevertheless a rarity among his peers. He continues to stand out, and is an asset to any administration. In addition, Mr Wike's six grievances are germane to the politics and internal dynamics of the PDP. If he heads to court and the temples of justice are inured to the criticism of those who accuse the judiciary of compromise, they will find merit in his complaints and will grant him reliefs of all kinds. What remains for the PDP, therefore, is to appeal to public sentiments and paint the FCT minister as an agent provocateur and a two-timing and unscrupulous politician working for the APC administration. The characterisation will resonate, but it will crumble under legal scrutiny.
The PDP has become testier and more desperate than ever. Judging from their intemperate responses to Mr Wike's nimble footwork, they seem willing to go for broke. The FCT minister knows this, or at least senses that the opposition party is spoiling for a fight, a fight that could entail his expulsion. While he will not back down, he appears aware that he does not hold as many aces as he held and played in 2023 when he took the battle to the grumpy Alhaji Atiku and won. Mr Wike may wish to prolong the current fight to as close to the next presidential election as possible, but the PDP bigwigs, who are experts at trench warfare themselves, also know this and are determined that the turf battles be fought now rather than in the future. Even if tightrope walking becomes too demanding for the FCT minister, and he eventually capitulates along the line, it is uncertain that the PDP, as it is currently run and constituted, can profit from the surrender. They don't have a viable presidential candidate, and, despite casting their net far and wide, are unlikely to find an extraordinary politician in the next six months to put them in good stead to make a great impression in 2027.