Commentary: As Gonzaga creeps toward the bubble, could they miss out on the NCAA Tournament?


Commentary: As Gonzaga creeps toward the bubble, could they miss out on the NCAA Tournament?

The breathtaking beatdown unfolded three months ago: Gonzaga 101, Baylor, 63, and oh-my-goodness did the Zags look like a title contender.

The offense, the defense, the starters, the reserves, the effort and execution, the ball movement and rotations - every aspect of Gonzaga's debut performance suggested its No. 6 ranking in the AP preseason poll was five spots too low.

Then came an unexpected loss to West Virginia in the Bahamas and a few high-profile December stumbles. The Zags lost to Kentucky, Connecticut and UCLA by a grand total of 10 points.

Still, the calendar turned and there was zero reason to think history would not repeat in West Coast Conference play, with the Zags ripping through the league, staring down Saint Mary's in the conference tournament and entering the NCAAs with a top-four seed.

But with the stretch run approaching, the script has flipped, the losses are mounting and the outlook has turned gray.

The Zags (16-7) are not a lock for March Madness.

We repeat: It's Feb. 3, and Gonzaga is not a lock for the NCAAs.

If the tournament were seeded today, the Zags would be a No. 8 seed according to BracketMatrix, which aggregates 91 NCAA Tournament bracket projections across the internet, including some of the most respected.

ESPN's Bracketology lists them as a No. 8 seed; CBS Sports shows them as a No. 9; so does USA Today.

In that range, the Bulldogs aren't on the bubble, but they are perilously close.

The Zags have eight games remaining in the regular season. Half are against the top teams in the WCC: Saint Mary's, San Francisco and Santa Clara. A fifth is down the road at Washington State.

It would not take much to slide onto the NCAA bubble. Their tournament profile is as wobbly as the defense that has confounded coach Mark Few for weeks.

The Zags have just two Quadrant I victories - one less than Saint Mary's.

Even worse, seven of their 16 wins are of the Quadrant IV variety.

And they are 50th in the Wins Above Bubble ranking, which measures how Gonzaga has performed against its schedule compared to how an average bubble team would have fared against the same lineup of opponents.

In WAB, the Zags are just behind three teams, Brigham Young, Arizona State and Pittsburgh, that are on the bubble.

This could be close, folks.

It's not unreasonable to envision the Zags dropping two or three more games and entering the WCC tournament with their fate in doubt on Selection Sunday.

Gonzaga hasn't missed March Madness since the 1990s. Its streak of 25 consecutive NCAA appearances is second only to Michigan State (26).

And we aren't projecting the Zags to miss the event this year. But that very scenario - a team on the brink through the stretch run - has morphed from unthinkable to plausible in four short months.

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