Global cancer burden attributable to excess body weight, 1990 to 2021, decomposed by population size, aging, and epidemiological change


Global cancer burden attributable to excess body weight, 1990 to 2021, decomposed by population size, aging, and epidemiological change

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate cancer burden attributable to excess body weight (EBW) and identify its main source. Methods: We obtained relative risks from meta-analyses, cancer and population data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, and BMI prevalence data from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC). We calculated the incidence of 11 cancers attributable to high BMI from 1990 to 2021, analyzed trends using joinpoint regression, and assessed cohort effects with the age-period-cohort model. Decomposition analysis was conducted by cancer-specific risk factors and by population size, aging, and epidemiological changes. Results: The incidence of 11 EBW-related cancers has increased from 1990 to 2021. Later-born cohorts and older age groups had higher cancer incidence rates. High BMI was the top contributor to changes in cancer burden (15.96% of all disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]), particularly in high Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions. Colorectal, esophageal, and liver cancer had the highest burden due to high BMI (1,349,622; 1,284,385; and 944,616 DALYs, respectively). Epidemiological changes in BMI contributed to the rising DALY burden, ranging from 7.88% for postmenopausal breast cancer to 49.20% for liver cancer. Conclusions: The rising prevalence of EBW contributed to the global cancer burden, showing a significant birth cohort effect. High BMI was the top contributing factor to obesity-related cancers, surpassing other epidemiological risk factors. (Figure presented.).

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