In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on February 11, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price will drop in 2025 and increase in 2026.
The EIA's February STEO forecast that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price will average $3.63 per gallon in 2025 and $3.70 per gallon in 2026. This STEO highlighted that the U.S. on-highway fuel price averaged $3.76 per gallon in 2024.
In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would average $3.66 per gallon in 2025 and $3.64 per gallon in 2026. That STEO also highlighted that the 2024 U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.76 per gallon.
The EIA's latest STEO sees the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaging $3.65 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025, $3.59 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.60 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.68 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.71 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $3.68 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.70 per gallon in the third quarter, and $3.72 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its previous STEO, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price would average $3.57 per gallon in the first quarter of 2025, $3.60 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.72 per gallon in the third quarter, $3.76 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $3.70 per gallon in the first quarter of 2026, and $3.62 per gallon across the second, third, and four quarters of next year.
Recent US Diesel Price
The EIA's latest diesel fuel update, which was released on February 18, showed that the U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price averaged $3.660 per gallon on February 3, $3.665 per gallon on February 10, and $3.677 per gallon on February 17. The February 17 price was down $0.432 compared to the year ago price, the fuel update outlined.
Of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions highlighted in the EIA's latest fuel update, the West Coast was shown to have the highest U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price as of February 17, at $4.316 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was shown to have the lowest U.S. on-highway diesel fuel price as of February 17, at $3.382 per gallon.
A glossary section of the EIA site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 encompass U.S. territories, the site adds.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average U.S. diesel price is $3.694 per gallon, as of February 21. Yesterday's average was $3.693 per gallon, the week ago average was $3.672 per gallon, the month ago average was $3.650 per gallon, and the year ago average was $4.097 per gallon, the site showed.
The highest recorded average U.S. diesel price was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.816 per gallon, the AAA site highlighted.
What do you Pay for in a Gallon?
The EIA's latest fuel update, which put the diesel price at $3.49 per gallon in December 2024, showed that 48 percent of this total went towards crude oil costs, 22 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 17 percent went towards taxes, and 13 percent went towards refining costs.
An EIA diesel fuel update released in February last year, which pegged the retail price of diesel at $3.97 per gallon in December 2023, revealed that 44 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 22 percent went towards refining costs, 19 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, and 15 percent went towards taxes.