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Henrietta, I want to bring you in here. We were just listening to Ben kind of uh outline and game out the potential scenarios. I want to know your opinion of how you see this going and what could happen, what could swing things either way.
Well, the Supreme Court ordinarily wouldn't even hear this case because the Court of International Trade and the Court of Appeals have both reached the same conclusion, which is that Trump doesn't have the authority. No president has the authority under the 1977 International Economic Power Emergency Act. So, there is uh a plain precedent for the administration never using these tariffs, Congress not having given the president taxation authority here, and especially not on the sweeping scale that he has imposed over what has been, you know, decades-long issues for the United States in terms of trade deficit. So, the cut and dry answer is that the Supreme Court is likely to find on the legal question that the president doesn't have the authority to impose these tariffs.
Moreover, they've also decided in the last couple of months that and when a president acts too aggressively, it violates the major questions doctrine and says basically the president is asking outside of his purview. He's not in his lane anymore. Congress needs to decide these things. So, my base case with 50 to 65% odds is that the Supreme Court will side with the two lower courts and say the president doesn't have this authority.
You can see from the president's filings with the um uh solicitor general that they're trying to say, look, don't even limit it. Don't make it a short-term tariff, don't make it applicable in only certain instances. We want this wide latitude. And that goes to the heart of the major questions doctrine. So, my base case is that sectors are going to get really aggressively hit in the next couple of months as the IEEPA authority is overruled. And that's where we need to concentrate. Furniture, lumber, timber, aircraft, trucking, pharma, semis, that's what's going to get hit in the immediate aftermath of this court case.